ON THE QUESTION OF ARAB PARTICIPATION
IN THE FORTHCOMING ISRAELI ELECTIONS
By Elie Rekhess
December 5, 2002

In the period since the elections to the 15th Knesset in May 1999, Jewish-Arab relations in Israel have deteriorated to an unprecedented low. The forthcoming elections to the Knesset will be held under the remaining powerful impact of the violent clashes between Arab demonstrators and Israeli Police in October 2000. In these clashes, that took place against the background of the second Palestinian Intifada, which had then just erupted in the West Bank and Gaza, 13 Arab citizens were killed. One of the significant consequences of the rift created by these events was the massive boycott by Arab voters of the elections for Prime Minister in February 2001. Only 18% of the Arab voters made it to the polls, a low turnout that stood in sharp contradiction to the high rates of participation registered in the past.

One of the major questions presently raised in the Arab public debate is whether the 2001 pattern will be repeated. Public opinion polls indicate a considerable decline in voter turnout. Arab Members of Knesset (MK), however, continue to demonstrate self-assurance and believe that high voting patterns will be retained. If indeed participation will be as high as in previous elections, it would be interpreted as a vote of confidence by the Arab public in the Israeli political system, as well as an expression of acceptance of the Knesset as a legitimate arena for political action and debate. It would also indicate an Arab vote of confidence in the representatives of the Arab political parties vying for support in the Arab community.

At the same time, however, one should make a more critical examination of the effects of developments since 1999 on the voting patterns of the Arab sector. The on-going crisis between the State and its Arab citizens has been seriously exacerbated. Continued government neglect of the needs of the Arab population serves as fertile ground for growing alienation accentuated further by events such as the October 2000 riots.

Under the impact of ongoing Palestinian-Israeli violence and due to a significant increase in the number of Israeli Arab citizens involved in terrorist activity there has been a noted aggravation of mutual hostility between Jews and Arabs. This negative atmosphere of exclusion, frustration and bitterness had contributed significantly (alongside other factors) to the widespread decision of the Arab electorate to boycott the 2001 elections. It may well be that these very feelings will similarly influence Arab voter behavior in the forthcoming elections.

Another consideration which will effect the decision of Arab voters is their attitude toward Arab MKs. In recent years the Arab public has become increasingly disappointed with its Knesset representatives. The rise in the number of Arab MKs (13, including Druze) has not produced any significant change in the political or socio-economic status of the Arabs in Israel. Arab MKs have never been invited to participate in government coalitions and they have failed to use their parliamentary representation to obtain leverage over government policies and action. Arab parliamentary representation has sunk into a state of exclusion and marginality. The Arab MKs did not deliver.

Against this background a new approach has emerged among Arab intellectuals and politicians, according to which it is a waste of time to run for the Knesset, and that, instead, the Arab community should develop its own representative institutions, including a separate Arab parliament. An Arab academic, As‘ad Ghanem, for example, has argued that if a significant number of voters boycott the forthcoming elections, then the possibility of establishing “an Arab-Palestinian political body to be elected in country-wide elections” should be considered (Ha’aretz, 12 February 2001). The radical nationalist “Abna al-Balad” (“the Sons of the Village”) similarly called for the establishment of an “Arab parliament which will organize our masses on the national level” (Kull al-`Arab, 9 February 2001).

Another political movement which has endorsed and promoted the notion of separate institutions is the strident (northern) faction of the Islamic Movement in Israel. Its popular leader, Shaykh Ra’id Salah, has consistently opposed Arab participation in the Knesset, arguing that from a doctrinal point of view, the Islamists could not be represented in a political body, the legitimacy of which stems from sovereignty of the Jewish people.

To sum up, one can make a number of observations regarding the participation of Arab voters in the next elections. First, due to the continued polarization of Jewish-Arab relations and the growing alienation, Zionist parties will find it difficult to secure a high rate of popular participation. The Likud has not strengthened its position in the Arab community, while the Labor party, though more popular due to Amram Mitzna’s dovish image, will still have a tough job of rising from the low point it reached in 1999. Second, the forthcoming elections will serve as a test of the Islamic Movement’s influence. There are signs that the radical Islamists have strengthened their position within the Arab community and the question is whether they will follow their past policy advocating boycott and to what extent Arab voters will respond to them. Third, the forthcoming elections will indicate whether the traditional Israeli parliamentary system is still popular within the Arab community or whether it is beginning to collapse and thus pave the way for an alternative, separatist, model, with or without an interim period of political chaos. A massive Arab boycott will undoubtedly have far reaching ramifications for the status of the Arab minority in Israel and its future relations with the Jewish majority.

This commentary is taken from the full-length report,
The Arabs in Israel: Elections 2003, Issue #1 (November 5, 2002. In Hebrew).

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