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March
15,
2010
Once remote from the main currents of
Middle Eastern affairs, Yemen is now the scene of a vortex of
conflicts drive by religious, ethnic and social divisions, with
potentially profound implications for the region. Center
Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman examines the situation in his
latest "Mideast Monitor" appearing in THE JERUSALEM REPORT.
February
19,
2010
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.052,
February 19, 2009.
February
12,
2010
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.051,
February 12, 2009.
February 9,
2010
Six years ago, Libyan leader
Mu`ammar al-Qaddafi abandoned his country's clandestine nuclear
weapons program. Now he appears to be having second thoughts.
Center Senior Fellow Yehudit Ronen analyzes Qaddafi's
thinking on the the subject in this latest edition of TEL
AVIV NOTES.
February 7,
2010
The recent election of a new leader of
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood provides a window into the actions
and views of Egypt's oldest and strongest opposition movement.
Tel Aviv University post-doctoral fellow Liad Porat analyzes the
challenges facing the organization in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
February
5,
2010
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.050,
February 5, 2009.
February 15,
2010
Center Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman examines
the latest Syrian-Saudi thaw against
the background of continued Arab fragmentation and the absence
of a traditionally important Egyptian-Saudi-Syrian triangular
alliance in the face of Iran's increasing power projection,
in the latest issue of The Jerusalem Report.
January
31,
2010
Participating last October in "Limmud Istanbul", Center Senior
Fellow Ofra Bengio discovered an impressive display of
communal strength and solidarity among Turkey's small Jewish
population. It is they, she writes, who have the most to lose
from the souring relations between the two states, and she
describes the growing discrimination that Turkish Jews are
experiencing, which is driving many to consider leaving the
country. The link to the article, published in "Ha'aretz",
on January 29, 2010, follows below.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1146151.html
January 28,
2010
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.049,
January 28, 2009.
January 26,
2010
The recent Swiss referendum endorsing a
ban on the construction of minarets, triggered strong responses
among Arab and Muslim commentators and officials. Center
Senior Fellow Esther Webman analyzes the variety of
reactions and ensuing debate in this latest edition of TEL
AVIV NOTES.
January 25,
2010
Over the last year, the Palestinian
economy in the West Bank has improved significantly, thanks
primarily to the stewardship of PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.
Center Senior Fellow Paul Rivlin analyzes these
developments and possible implications in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
January 21,
2010
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.048,
January 21, 2009.
January 14,
2010
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.047,
January 14, 2009.
January
12,
2010
As the peace
process shows signs of revival, Palestinian divisions have
deepened. The Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmud Abbas and
Salam Fayyad, have developed a two-pronged strategy towards
matters which holds out greater promise for success than past
Palestinian efforts. Center Fellow Ephraim Lavie examines
developments in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
January 7,
2010
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.046,
January 7, 2009.
January
5,
2010
The recent three-match shootout
between Egypt and Algeria over a coveted spot in next summer’s
World Cup soccer tournament may well be remembered as having
driven the last nail in the coffin of the idea and praxis of
Arab nationalism. Center Fellow Mira Tzoreff examines
the events from the perspective of Egyptian collective identity
in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
January 18,
2010
Whether it's a
football match between Algeria and Egypt, or a visit to Yad
Vashem by a Moroccan Berber delegation, the politics of identity
is a central feature of contemporary North African life.
Center Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman looks at both
instances in the most recent issue of The Jerusalem Report.
December
31,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.045,
December 31, 2009.
December 24,
2009
The Turkish
government’s decision to bar Israel from a NATO air force
exercise in October provided stark indication that the
Turkish-Israeli strategic alignment which emerged in the
mid-1990s has been substantially weakened and has entered a new,
more uncertain era. Berna Uzun, a visiting researcher
at the Dayan Center from Marmara University in Istanbul analyzes
the reasons behind the shift in this latest edition of TEL
AVIV NOTES.
December
24,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.044,
December 24, 2009.
December 21,
2009
Iraq’s severe isolation prior to 2003 and
the resulting lack of appropriate infrastructure, plus the
country’s chaotic state of affairs since then, has left it
behind other states in the region regarding the degree of
Internet penetration and usage. At the same time, it appears
that at least a portion of the Iraqi populace is hungry for
access to the new media. Dr. Tal Pavel examines the
current state of the Internet in Iraq in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
December 17,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.043,
December 17, 2009.
December
7,
2009
The possibility of a renewal of
Israeli-Syrian negotiations is again the subject of considerable
media speculation, fueled by statements by leaders on both sides
of the divide. Center Director Eyal Zisser examines the
possibility of these speculations actually becoming reality in
this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
December 10,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.042,
December 10, 2009.
December
9,
2009
On November 25, 2009, the
government-owned Dubai World holding company, announced that it
would ask its creditors to extend the maturity of its
obligations to them, as it could not pay what it owed them on
time. The announcement sent shock waves through the
international financial system. Center Senior Fellow Paul
Rivlin provides the essential background to the possible end
of the Dubai "miracle" in this latest edition of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
December 21,
2009
Recent days have seen the floating of an
old-new idea: a unilateral Palestinian declaration of
independence (UDI), to encompass all of the West Bank and East
Jerusalem, accompanied by a demarche to the UN Security Council
asking for a resolution officially recognizing the new state.
Dayan Center Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman provides the
context in the latest issue of The Jerusalem Report.
December 5,
2009
The arrangements, or lack therof, for
an orderly, agreed-on leadership succession in Egypt, Syria,
Jordan and the Palestinian Authority raise questions regarding
the future political stability in the region. Center Fellow
Uriya Shavit examines the subject in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
December 3,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.041,
December 2, 2009.
December 2,
2009
A new government has finally
been formed in Lebanon, five months after the elections which
returned the March 14 Camp of Sa`d al-Din al-Hariri to power.
Center Director Professor Eyal Zisser analyzes this most
recent round in the struggle to determine Lebanon's future in
the latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
November 26,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.040,
November 26, 2009.
November 19,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.039,
November 19, 2009.
November 12,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.038,
November 12, 2009.
November
23
2009
The continuing imbalance between
ruling authorities and civil society in the Middle East, against
the background of the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin
Wall, is the subject of Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman's
commentary, appearing in the most recent issue (November 23,
2009) of The Jerusalem Report.
November
8
2009
Center Fellow Daniel Zisenwine analyzes
the current state of Tunisian
politics, against the background of recently held presidential
and parliamentary elections, in this latest edition of TEL
AVIV NOTES.
November 5,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.037,
November 5, 2009.
November
4
2009
Syria was among the last countries in the
Middle East to introduce the Internet, and places severe
restrictions on the content available to its citizens.
Nonetheless, on-line networks are flourishing there, with some
surprising results. Dr. Tal Pavel analyzes these
developments in the latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
October 29,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.036,
October 29, 2009.
October 22,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.035,
October 22, 2009.
October
15,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.034,
October 15, 2009.
October
26
2009
Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman's
analyzes Middle East regional dynamics, focusing on the "Big
Three" - Iran, Turkey and Egypt - in the latest issue of
The Jerusalem Report.
October
1,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.033,
October 1, 2009.
September 24,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.032,
September 24, 2009.
September 29,
2009
The latest Arab Human Development
Report, written by a cross-section of Arab academicians, paints
a sobering portrait of contemporary Arab social, economic and
political realities. Dayan Center Senior Fellow Bruce
Maddy-Weitzman analyzes the report's contents, and the
reactions to it, in the latest issue of The Jerusalem Report.
September 17,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.031,
September 17, 2009.
September 10,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.030,
September 10, 2009.
September 3,
2009
Libyan leader Muammad al-Qadhafi, the Great
Survivor of contemporary international politics, is currently
marking the 40th anniversary of his seizure of power with 4 days
of lavish celebrations. Center Senior Fellow Prof.
Yehudit Ronen provides a retrospective analysis of Qadhafi's
tumultuous time in power in this latest edition of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
September 3,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.029,
September 3, 2009.
August 30,
2009
All over the Middle
East, women are active on the Internet, writing in Arabic,
Persian, Turkish and English, telling their personal stories,
discussing societal matters and undertaking various initiatives
to mobilize people on behalf of their various causes. The
proliferation of “women’s space” and “women’s voices” on the
Internet has clearly expanded the discourse regarding the need
for social change in the region, with an eye to shattering the
glass ceiling that hovers over women in order to insure them
their fundamental rights. Dr. Tal Pavel provides a
window into these activities in this latest edition of TEL
AVIV NOTES.
August 20,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.028,
August 20, 2009.
August 17,
2009
The Kurdish issue in
Turkey, long a matter which has bedeviled the Turkish state, has
now reached a boiling point. There are three prominent actors to
the drama, each with it own particular world view and preferred
outcome. Given the polarization on the issue, a solution does
not appear to be in reach. Visiting Dayan Center researcher
Egemen Başar Bezci analyzes the various forces at work in
this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
August 13,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.027,
August 13, 2009.
August 10, 2009
Recent statements by
India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh seemed to indicate New
Delhi's desire to resume its comprehensive dialogue with
Islamabad, which was suspended in the wake of the Mumbai terror
attacks of November 2008. However Pakistani realities do not
easily square with the Indian Prime Minister’s noble intentions
for a dialogue. Former Visiting Center Fellow Jagdish N.
Singh examines the situation in Pakistan in this latest
edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
August 6,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.026,
August 6, 2009.
July 30,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.025,
July 30, 2009.
July 26,
2009
The massive, sustained protests in
Iran this past month against the regime’s apparent falsification
of the presidential election results was enabled by widespread
employment of new communication technologies. Among them is
Twitter, the micro-blog which enables its users to distribute
short messages of no more than 140 characters ('Tweets') via the
Internet, including by way of cellular phones. Dr. Tal
Pavel discusses the Twitter phenomenon in the Middle East in
the latest version of Tel Aviv Notes.
July 23,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.024,
July 23, 2009.
August 3, 2009
Contrary to expectations, the recent
Lebanese elections did not produce a victory for the
Hizballah-led camp, but rather for the pro-Western March 8
coalition. Lebanese political groupings are now engaged in an
intricate process of negotiation and dialogue in an attempt to
form a new government. Thanks to the election results and
concurrent regional developments, the prospects for an extended
political truce between its quarreling factions appears greater
than at any time in recent years. Senior Fellow Dr. Bruce
Maddy-Weitzman analyzes the Lebanese scene in the latest
issue of The Jerusalem Report.
July 19, 2009
On June 25, when 2.5m
eligible voters choose the president and parliament for the
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), in northern Iraq, marking
another step in the distancing of Iraqi Kurdistan from the
central authorities in Baghdad. Center Senior Fellow Prof.
Ofra Bengio and Sherko Kirmanj, a PhD candidate at
the University of South Australia, examine the political
dynamics in Iraqi Kurdistan in this latest edition of TEL
AVIV NOTES.
July 16,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.023,
July 16, 2009.
July 9,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.022,
July 9, 2009.
July 2,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.021,
July 2, 2009.
June 10, 2009
The current Hamas-Fatah dialogue,
sponsored by Egypt and designed as a key element to breaking the
Arab-Israeli diplomatic stalemate, is fraught with obstacles.
Center Fellow Ephraim Lavie analyzes the respective
positions of Hamas and Fatah, against the background of Fatah's
decline, in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
June 25,
2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and
opinions on current events from around the Middle East collected
and brought to you by the Dayan Center.
No.020, June 25, 2009.
July
6,
2009
The central events in
the Middle East “street” in recent weeks were the extraordinary
US Presidential visit to Cairo, and two closely watched and
highly contested elections, in Lebanon and Iran. The impact of
these developments on the overall contours of Middle East
politics, whether domestic or regional, remains to be seen.
Center Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman comments in the
latest edition of The Jerusalem Report.
June 18, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.019,
June 18, 2009.
June 11, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.018,
June 11, 2009.
June
10,
2009
While the recent Lebanese and Iranian
elections captured most of the world's attention, Kuwait held
its own parliamentary elections in mid-May. It was the third
time in three years that voters had gone to the polls,
indicating considerable political instability, although not
posing a threat to the ruling regime. The big surprise in the
latest elections internationally and domestically alike was the
first-ever election of four women to the fifty-member parliament.
Dayan Center post-doctoral fellow Eran Segal analyzes the
goings-on Kuwait in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
June 4, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.017,
June 4, 2009.
June
1,
2009
The International Criminal Court's
indicment of Sudanese President Bashir was a ground-breaking
act, prioritizing human rights over the principles of state
sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of
states. Alongside of Africa Union peacekeeping operations in
Darfur, discussions among African states have evolved in recent
years in favor of this new approach, but the old one remains
dominant. Center Researcher Irit Back examines the
competing African discourses and approaches in this latest
edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
May 27, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.016,
May 27, 2009.
May 25,
2009
The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza marked a
significant milestone in the history of Arab liberal-critical
writing. The Palestinian issue was no longer sacrosanct, as
analysts expressed sharp criticism of the Palestinians in
general, and Hamas in particular. Tel Aviv University
researchers Shaul Levy and Idan Barir examine the
matter in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
June
8,
2009
A discussion of Arab concerns with the notion of an
Iranian-American "grand bargain" between Iran and the US by
the Center's Marcia Israel Senior Fellow, Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman,
in the latest issue of The Jerusalem Report.
May 21, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.015,
May 21, 2009.
May 14, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.014,
May 11, 2009.
May 11, 2009
On Israel and the Palestinians: A
Conversation between an Israeli and an American. What
follows is an exchange of views between Asher Susser,
Senior Fellow and former Director of the Moshe Dayan Center for
Middle Eastern Studies, and Kip Hagopian, of Los
Angeles, a former venture capitalist and current Chairman of
Maxim Integrated Products, a large American semiconductor
company. Mr. Hagopian is a member of the International Board of
Overseers of the Center.2 The exchange took place between
December 2007 and January 2009.
April 30, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.013,
May 7, 2009.
April 30, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.012,
April 30, 2009.
May
11,
2009
The unprecedented Iranian power projection
into the Arab heartland, via Hizballah operatives, and Egypt's
response, is analyzed by Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman,
appearing in the latest issue of The Jerusalem Report.
April 7, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.011,
April 23, 2009.
April
5,
2009
The world economic crisis has not passed over the Middle Eastern
states. The slowdown in growth that is now being experienced is
expected - according to most forecasts - to last at least a
year, and will reduce the level of employment. Greater
socio-economic and even political pressures in region can
therefore be expected. Center Senior Fellow Paul Rivlin
explains the multiple effects of the crisis on Middle Eastern
states, and analyzes their efforts to cope with the new
situation, in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
April 7, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.010,
April 2, 2009.
April 7,
2009
The annual Arab League summit
conference, held this year in Doha, Qatar on March 31, was
unusually brief, devoid of either substantive debate or
controversy, and missing the president of Egypt, the Arab
world’s traditional primus inter pares. Overall, the summit
served to emphasize the Arab world’s state of collective
weakness and internal divisions, in the face of the
preponderance of power accumulated by the three non-Arab states
in the region – Iran, Turkey and Israel. As such, it called into
question the very utility of the summit conference as a means to
both fashion and advance collective Arab policies while
regulating inter-Arab differences. Center Senior Fellows
Bruce Maddy-Weitzman and Joseph Kostiner explore the
inter-Arab dynamics underpinnig the summit in this latest
edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
April
2, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.009,
April 2, 2009.
March 26, 2009
Two Arab summits with conflicting purposes
convened during the recent Gaza war. The first took place in
Doha, Qatar, on January 15-16, the second in Kuwait, on January
19-20. The conflict sparked by these conferences was titled “the
war of summits” (harb al-qimmat) by the Arab media. Conventional
analyses suggested that the summits reflected a neat division
into "radical" and "moderate" camps. However, Center Senior
Fellow, Prof. Joseph Kostiner, offers a fuller, more
nuanced and subtler understanding of the inter-Arab dynamics
underpinning the competing gatherings in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
March
26, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.008,
March 26, 2009.
March 22, 2009
In recent years, Israel has
been forced into indirect negotiations with Hezbollah and Hamas
for the purpose of exchanging military prisoners, civilian
hostages and soldiers missing in action. The standpoint adopted
by both non-state Islamic organizations on this issue was
influenced by national-political deliberations, public discourse
and social pressure exerted by families of those being held on
both the Israeli and the Arab sides. Center Fellow
Ephraim Lavie analyzes the issue of prisoners of war and
hostages from the perspective of Islamic law and tradition, as
well as the various factors shaping the current responses of
Hezbollah and Hamas, in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
March 19, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.007,
March 19, 2009.
March 15, 2009
The Obama
Administration's Middle East policy is now underway. One aspect
of its new approach is the attempt to engage in a meaningful
dialogue with Syria. Center Director, Prof. Eyal Zisser
examines the Syrian perception of the American efforts, and
evaluates the likelihood of the US-Syrian dialogue bearing
fruit, in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
March 12, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.006,
March 12, 2009.
March 5, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.005,
March 5, 2009.
February 26, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.004,
February 26, 2009.
February 19, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.003,
February 19, 2009.
February 12, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.002, February
12, 2009.
February 8, 2009
The recent Davos incident in which Turkish
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan demonstratively walked off the
stage during his debate with Israeli President Shimon Peres was
not an accident. Rather, it was the culmination of a long
process of changing Turkish priorities under the two AKP
governments and a new configuration of Ankara’s foreign policy’s
role in the region. Center Senior Fellow, Prof. Ofra
Bengio, analyzes the current state of Turkish-Israeli
relations in this latest issue of TEL AVIV NOTES.
February 5, 2009
Middle East News & Views. A weekly sample of news and opinions
on current events from around the Middle East collected and
brought to you by the Dayan Center. No.001, February
5, 2009.
February 5, 2009
The ramifications of
the war in Gaza go far beyond the narrow confines of the Gazan
battlefield and Israel's relations with Hamas. The war has not
only inflicted a resounding defeat on Hamas and wrought
horrendous loss of life and physical damage on Gaza and its
people. It has also shaken the regional strategic architecture.
Dayah Center Senior Fellow and Prof. Asher Susser
analyzes the new situation in this latest edition of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
January 5, 2009
Mahmud Abbas’s Palestinian
Authority took out full-page Hebrew-language ads in four Israeli
newspapers last month to promote the virtues of the 2002 Arab
peace initiative to the Israeli public. It was an
unprecedented act of public diplomacy. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman,
the Center's Marcia Israel Senior Fellow, analyzed the PA's
motivations, as well as the problematic aspect of the
initiative, in an article published in The Jerusalem Report,
dated January 5, 2009.
December 18, 2008
The "Arab Peace Initiative", adopted at the
2002 Beirut Arab Summit Conference and reconfirmed by the 2007
Arab summit in Riyadh, has now become a legitimate part of the
international community's package of diplomatic tools being used
to advance the Arab-Israeli peace process. The official
Israeli approach to the initiative has evolved as well, from
summary dismissal to qualified aknowledgement of its value.
Israeli Middle Eastern scholars have recently carried on a
debate regarding the content and underlying importance of the
initiative. Former Center director Prof. Asher Susser
weighed in with his views in Ha'aretz on December 18, which we
present to you here.
December 9, 2008
The latest jehadi terrorist attacks in
Mumbai exposed major shortcomings in India's capacity to address
such threats. Ironically, Indian political leaders had been
warned by their own security experts for some time that such an
operation was likely, and that the country was extremely
vulnerable. Jagdish N. Singh, a senior Indian
journalist and recent Visiting Fellow at the Center analyzes the
background and the implications for India in this latest edition
of TEL AVIV NOTES.
November 19, 2008
Libyan leader
Muammar al-Qadhdhafi was recently in Moscow, after an absence of
almost three decades, armed with a two billion dollar shopping
list. What did he achieve? Center Senior Fellow and Senior
Lecturer at Bar-Ilan University Yehudit Ronen provides
the background and analysis to Qadhdhafi's actions in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
November 16, 2008
A serious pitfall in the
American strategy in the post-9/11 landscape has been to expect
too much from the Pakistani establishment, officially an ally in
the war on jihadi terrorism. In view of the profound
influence of religion in Pakistani society and political life,
its politicians, sections of the army and the powerful
Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) have all sought to placate the
clergy so as to broaden their social base, making Pakistan’s
behavior particularly opaque, posing a policy challenge to the
incoming Obama Administration. Senior Indian journalist and
Visiting Center Fellow Jagdish N. Singh sheds light on this
murky picture in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
November
4, 2008
The
emergence of a modern Kurdish ethno-national movement among the
region's more than 20 million Kurdish speakers in recent decades
has been a development of great significance, posing major
challenges to a number of Middle Eastern states. It has been
underpinned by a veritable revolution in Kurdish language and
literature, from oral production only vaguely known in the world
to a written corpus that is taking its place within the pantheon
of world literature. Center Senior Fellow, Professor Ofra
Bengio, examines the developments in this oft-overlooked
dimension in this latest version of TEL AVIV NOTES.
October 28, 2008
The dramatic
collapse affecting US banking and capital markets has spread to
the rest of the world, thus making a recovery even harder to
achieve. This financial crisis is by far the most serious the
world has faced since 1929. It's affects on the Middle East
promise to be profound as well. Center Senior Fellow Paul
Rivlin examines the causes, and points to some of the
consequences, in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
October 7, 2008
Qatar, the small oil and natural gas-rich
principality in the Persian Gulf, has assiduously carved out an
activist, independent foreign policy in recent years, thus
exercising influence considerably beyond its size. One aspect of
its maverick foreign policy has been the maintenance of
above-board political and commercial relations with Israel, even
as it cultivates close ties with Iran. Dr. Uzi Rabi,
the Chairman of the Dept. of Middle East History, analyzes
Qatar's foreign policy in this latest edition of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
August 22, 2008
Russia's
invasion of Georgia has significant strategic implications, both
globally and regionally, economically and politically.
Center Senior Fellow Paul Rivlin breaks down and analyzes
the factors at play in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
August 21, 2008
The military coup which overthrew
the democratically-elected regime in Mauritania marked another
setback for the pro-democracy forces in Africa. Center
Fellow Daniel Zisenwine analyzes the decline and fall of
this once-promising democratic experiment in this poor corner of
northwest Africa in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
August
6, 2008
The recent failure to depose
long-time Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe from power via the
ballot box has been the subject of much discussion among African
policy-makers, politicians and analysts. Beyond the
particular debate over Mugabe's personality and deeds, a variety
of views have come to the fore regarding larger issues related
to democracy, democratization and the right of outside actors to
interfere in the internal affairs of African states. Dayan
Center Researcher Irit Back sheds light on these developments in
this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
July
24, 2008
Over the last 12 months, the international price of oil doubled,
while in the twelve month period ending on March 1, 2008, the
price of food, measured by the UN Food and Agriculture
Organization’s composite index, rose by 50%. These
developments have had major and differential effects on the
economies of the Middle East. Center Senior Fellow Paul
Rivlin examines this new situation in the latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
June 22, 2008
The Hamas-Israeli
ceasefire agreement in Gaza (tahdi'a; lit. “calming”), together
with the decision by Palestinian Authority President Mahmud
Abbas (Abu Mazen) to renew the “national dialogue” with Hamas,
inaugurated a new and promising phase in Hamas’s efforts to
establish itself as the legitimate governing party in the
Palestinian territories. Ephraim Lavie, Director of Tel Aviv
University's Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research, analyzes
these developments in the Palestinian sphere in this latest
edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
June
19, 2008
Official and media response in
the Arab world to the horrific events in Sudan's Darfur region
during the last five years have largely ranged between cynicism
and callous indifference. Recently, however, new voices have
been heard. Center Research Fellow Dr. Irit Back
examines the underpinnings of the Arab responses to the Darfur
conflict and current views in this latest edition of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
June
4, 2008
The 60th anniversary
commemorations of the Palestinian nakba was a far cry from
ten years ago, when the commemorations were characterized by strong feelings of hope and a conviction that the Palestinians
were at long last embarking on a better future. Ten years later,
these hopes that had given way to despair. Center Fellow
Esther Webman compares the respective commemorations in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
May
22, 2008
Lebanon's warring factions have now stepped back from the brink
of civil war. Their latest agreement reflects the
fundamental changes in the internal and regional balance of
power which have taken place: in favor of the Lebanese Shi’ite
community, represented first and foremost by Hizballah, at the
expense of the traditional power centers based in the Maronite,
Sunni and Druze communities, and in favor of Hizballah’s patron,
Iran, at the expense of the central axis of the Arab state
system - Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the institution of the Arab
League. Center Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman
analyzes the broader context of these developments in the latest
issue of TEL AVIV NOTES
April
29, 2008
Bashar al-Asad's
confirmation, in an interview to the Qatari daily al-Watan, that
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had given him a commitment to
return the entire Golan Heights to Syria has one meaning:
Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations are warming up. Center
Director, Prof Eyal Zisser, analyzes the dynamics which underpin
this new development in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES
April
1, 2008
The fifth anniversary of the
Iraq war prompted innumerable analyses, but ignored one of the
main reasons for the failure of the US's democratization project
in the Middle East - the unswerving opposition by the Arab
intellectual class. Center Fellow Uriya Shavit
examines the reasons for their opposition in this latest issue
of TEL AVIV NOTES.
March
9, 2008
The annual Arab summit
conference is scheduled to be held at the end of March, in
Damascus. However, Saudi and Egyptian distress with Syria's
behavior regarding Lebanon and its alliance with Iran may result
in their leaders' non-attendance, and even the summit's
cancellation. Center Senior Fellow Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman
places the current developments into historical context in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
February 17, 2008
The assassination of Hizballah's
long-time military mastermind Imad Mughniyeh, killed by a
massive car bomb in Damascus, is a serious blow to the
organization, as well as to Syrian President Bashar al-Asad.
Both are now faced with tough choices. Center Director Eyal
Zisser examines the implications in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
January 27, 2008
George
W. Bush's mid-January visit to Saudi Arabia failed to return the
US-Saudi relationship to the status it enjoyed before September
11, 2001.Center Senior Fellow Josh Teitelbaum
examines the two countries' differing approaches towards Iran,
as well as the underlying nature of the relationship, in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
January 22, 2008
The treatment by the Egyptian
press of the 30th anniversary of Egyptian President Anwar
Sadat’s visit to Jerusalem says much about Egypt’s self-view
of its past and present. Mira Tzoreff analyzes the
various reactions to the anniversary and concurrent aspects of
the cultivation of Egyptian collective memory in this latest
edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
December 27, 2007
Prof. Kenneth W. Stein
of Emory University analyzes what was, and what wasn't achieved
at the Annapolis peace
conference, against the background of past conferences and
diplomatic initiatives, in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV
NOTES.
December 16, 2007
The crisis between Turkey, the Turkish Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK)
and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq that flared up
in the fall of 2007 brought to the surface the dramatic changes
which have occurred within
the
Turkish-Kurdish-American triangle. Dayan Center Senior
Fellow Ofra Bengio analyzes the background to the crisis,
and suggests likely directions that the triangular relationship
will take in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
November
14, 2007
Is Islam in Europe an integral
part of an evolving multicultural universe or a threat to the
integrity of European societies? The analysis by Center
Fellow Uriya Shavit, in this latest edition of TEL
AVIV NOTES, reveals a complex picture, both for Muslims
themselves and for European states and societies.
October 30, 2007
The Arab states are expected by the US to lend a hand to its
efforts to restart the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process at a meeting in Annapolis
scheduled for the end of November. For their part, America's
Arab allies have adopted a low profile for the time being, while
attempting to insure that the conference will not be a mere
photo-op. Center Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman
examines their calculations, and those of Syria as well, in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
October 16, 2007
Seven years
after the traumatic "October 2000 Events," Jewish-Arab relations
continue to be marked by worrisome developments. Elie
Rekhess, a Dayan Center Senior Fellow and Director of the
Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation, analyzes
the plusses and (mostly) minuses in this issue of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
September 25, 2007
The geopolitical changes unleashed by America’s overthrow of
Saddam Husayn’s regime in Iraq have resulted in a significant
measure of mistrust creeping into the historically close
relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US. Nonetheless, the
two countries underlying common interests in blocking the rise
of Iran as a regional hegemon and insuring the flow of oil
remain in place. Center Senior Fellow
Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum
examines
the most recent
oscillations in Saudi-American relations in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
September 19, 2007
Senior Fellow Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum (in Hebrew) on
Saudi Arabia’s proposed wall along the Iraqi border.
September 19, 2007
Morocco's September 7th
parliamentary elections provided an important window into
the state of Morocco’s much-heralded policies of liberalization
and democratization, as well as the place of Islamist parties in
the political process. Dayan Center Fellow Daniel Zissenwine
analyzes the outcome in this latest version of
TEL AVIV
NOTES.
August 30, 2007
Tuesday evening, August 14, 2007 marked the latest turn in
Iraq's ongoing nightmare, when a chain of blasts hit two
Yezidi Kurdish
villages. In this latest edition of
TEL AVIV
NOTES,
Idan Barir examines the implications.
August 22, 2007
Can economic
sanctions be effective in containing Iran's military nuclear
project? Are there lessons to be drawn from previous Middle
East experiences with sanctions? Dayan Center Senior Fellow
Amos Nadan and Truman
Institute Research Group Director
Eldad Pardo suggest
the answers in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
August 5, 2007
The elections of July 22, precipitated by a
political-constitutional crisis pitting the ruling AKP Islamist
party against the military and state elites, were one of the
most important in Turkey’s political history. The outcome
was a decisive vote of confidence for the AKP, as it seeks a new
synthesis between Islam, a market economy and liberal
democracy. Prof. Soli Ozel
of Bilgi University in Istanbul analyzes the results in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
July 22, 2007
The one-year anniversary of last year's Second Lebanon War calls
for scrutiny of the shifts
in the Middle East regional architecture which underpinned
the war, and an examination of the processes which subsequently
unfolded. A confident and ambitious Shi'ite Iran is intent on
filling the vacuum left by the frailty of secularism and the
infirmity of the Arab state. This weakness has also set the
stage for the reassertion with a vengeance of religious and
other primordial identities of family, tribe and sect. Center
Director Asher Susser examines these processes in the
latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
June 19, 2007
The outcome of the
civil war in the Gaza Strip created a fissure of historical
proportions in the Palestinian national movement and a
separation of governmental authority between Gaza and the West
Bank. Center Fellow Ephraim Lavie analyzes the dynamics
of the recent intra-Palestinian conflict and its implications in
this latest version of TEL AVIV NOTES.
June 7, 2007
The attempt by Turkey's ruling Islamist-oriented Justice
and Development Party (AKP) to promote one of its leading
figures to the office of President has touched off
a major political crisis in Turkey,
resulting in the scheduling of parliamentary elections on July
22. Tel Aviv University Doctoral Candidate Yossi Eli
analyzes the dynamics of the crisis in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
May 26, 2007
Algeria's recent
parliamentary elections provides a window into the state of
the country's political system and the prospects for democracy.
Center Fellow Dr. Daniel Zisenwine examines the
background to the elections and their outcome in this latest
edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
May 10, 2007
The
exigencies of governing, the threat of civil war and the renewal
of the Arab peace initiative has compelled the Hamas leadership
to adopt more pragmatic polices. At the same time, it has
striven to harden the Palestinian consensual position on core
ideological issues, and return the center of gravity in
Palestinian affairs to the Diaspora, away from the specific
interests of the West Bank and Gaza communities. Dayan Center
Director Prof. Asher Susser examines these dynamics in
this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
April 29, 2007
The decision by Hamas to form a Palestinian National Unity
Government with the rival Fatah movement was not an easy
one, and constituted a significant alteration of the
Damascus-based external leadership's position. Hamas is now
compelled to maneuver to maneuver between (a) the obligation of
governing, which require it to tender pragmatic policies in both
foreign and domestic affairs, and (b) its determination to
maintain its ideological principles. Dayan Center Fellow
Ephraim Lavie examines this dilemma, and Hamas' resulting
behavior, in the latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
March 25, 2007
A recent burst of Saudi Arabian diplomatic activity has
raised hopes for the establishment of a Western-Sunni
Arab-Israeli coalition which would counter Iran's bid for
regional hegemony and to reinvigorate the long-stalled
Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Dayan Center Senior Fellow
Prof. Joseph Kostiner examines
Saudi strategy and tactics
through the prism of a time-honored Saudi method - mediation
- in the latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
March 11, 2007
Recent
Islamist terrorist activities in Algeria and Tunisia have
renewed the focus of international attention on North Africa. In
this recent edition of Tel
Aviv Notes, post-doctoral fellow Dr. Daniel Zissenwine assesses the implications.
February 28, 2007
The ongoing standoff in Lebanon
is part of a larger struggle for regional hegemony between Iran,
on the one hand, and a number of Arab states and Israel, on the
other. Prof. Asher Susser, Head of the Dayan Center, examines
the issues at stake for Lebanon and for the region as a whole in
this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
February 14, 2007
Egypt's recent
crackdown on the opposition Muslim Brotherhood movement and
liberal political activists alike generated much attention
both domestically and internationally. Dr. Mira Tzoreff of the
Middle East History Department analyzes these developments and
their implications for Egyptian political and social life in
this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
February 8, 2007
If the current price of oil,
$54 per barrel, remains the same throughout 2007, it will
constitute an 11% drop from the average price in 2006, with a
corresponding drop in revenues for oil producing states. Saudi
Arabia is well-positioned to cope with this change. Iran,
however, is not. Dayan Center Senior Fellow Dr. Paul Rivlin
analyzes
the
implications of lower oil prices for both countries in this
latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
December 26,
2006
Prof. Nathan
Brown
The Achievements of the Palestinian
National Authority? A Historical
Appraisal.
January 5, 2007
Dayan Center
Senior Fellow Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman examines a
new book on Hamas.
January 14,
2007
US Secretary
of State Rice's latest visit to the Middle East has been
accompanied by renewed suggestions to fashion an Arab Quartet,
a coalition of moderate pro-Western Arab states which would
complement new American-led diplomatic initiatives in the
region. Dayan Center Senior Fellow
Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman
examines the prospective efficacy of the proposed Quartet in
this latest edition of Tel
Aviv Notes.
January 1, 2007
Iran's growing regional power and the accompanying strength of Shiite Muslim communities in Iraq, Lebanon and the Gulf are viewed with extreme concern in Saudi Arabia. After a decade of cordial relations with Iran, 2006 was a year in which the pendulum of Saudi-Iranian relations swung back towards confrontation. Dayan Center Senior Fellow Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum analyzes the regional and domestic aspects of Saudi concerns in this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
December 19, 2006
The Future Vision of the Palestinian Arabs in Israel was issued recently by the National Committee of the Heads of Arab Local Councils and endorsed by the Supreme Follow-up Committee of the Arabs in Israel. The document deals with the question of Israel's nature as a Jewish and democratic
state, and with the demands of the Arab population in Israel for national, political, social and cultural rights. Dr. Elie Rekhess, Dayan Center Senior Fellow and head of the Konrad Adenauer Center for Jewish-Arab-Cooperation analyzes the document and its consequences in this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
December 17, 2006
Palestinian Authority President Abu Mazen's decision to call for early presidential and legislative elections has raised Hamas-Fatah tensions to the boiling point. It came against the background of unbridgeable differences between Hamas and Abu Mazen over the terms of establishing a national unity government, as well as opposing approaches within the Hamas leadership regarding a ceasefire and prisoner exchange with Israel, pitting Damascus-based Khalid Mash`al against PA Prime Minister and Gaza resident Isma`il Haniyeh. Dayan Center Fellow Ephraim Lavie analyzes these complex dynamics in the latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
December 3, 2006
With Hizballah in the streets, the possibility of a Syrian-backed coup against the Siniora government in Lebanon grows more real every day. In this article from Israel's leading daily Yediot Aharonot, Senior Research Fellow
Prof. Eyal Zisser discussed the implications for Israel.
November 20, 2006
The assassination of Lebanon's Pierre Jumayyil is the latest in a series of events which have plunged Lebanon into its most severe political crisis since the end of the 14-year civil war in October 1989. Hizballah Secretary-General Shaykh Hasan Nasrallah has made a bold bid to fundamentally alter the existing political order in Lebanon, and achieve an effective veto power over major political decisions. Opposing him is a coalition of pro-Western, anti-Syrian forces known as the "Cedar Revolution, " headed by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Dayan Center Senior Fellow
Prof. Eyal Zisser analyzes the factors underpinning the crisis and its implications for Israel.
November 11, 2006
Saddam's Husayn's trial has now concluded, with a conviction and sentencing to death by hanging. Its long-term implications for Iraq are hardly what the US had hoped for. Like other previous US actions, this too serves to exacerbate internal divisions and further destabilize a society which is already caught in a cycle of escalating violence and headed towards all-out civil war. In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Dayan Center Senior Fellow Ofra Bengio analyzes Iraq's grim prospects, following the collapse of totalitarian rule.
September 13, 2006
With the Israeli government just having appointed a commission to
examine the war in Lebanon, the Israeli media is typically deep into
self-examination, remaining largely oblivious to the regional results of
the recent conflict. In this opinion piece from The
Jerusalem Post, Center Director Prof. Asher Susser
demonstrates that both
in Lebanon and in other Arab countries, the conflict is not considered a
conclusive victory for Hizballah. Many Lebanese are discussing
the disaster brought on the country by Hizballah, and the Lebanese
government has been emboldened to take advantage of the new political
realities to finally exert its sovereignty over the entire country, with
the help of a robust international force. An Egyptian commentator,
Ali al-Ibrahim, noted recently that the Arabs had learned to
differentiate between victories on television and real victories in the
field. "How long will it take the Israelis to do likewise?"
asks Susser.
August 21, 2006
Special issue on "The Arabs in
Israel and the War in the North" (The Konrad Adenauer Program
for Jewish-Arab Cooperation)
August 6, 2006
Strategically, the Israel-Hizbullah war which began on July 12 was a
breakdown of deterrence, writes Center Associate Fellow Ephraim Lavie.
In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes, he stresses that when Hizbullah leader Hasan Nasrallah
was not deterred by Israel's military power, Israel chose not to be
deterred by Hizbullah's missiles, and instead launched a large-scale
operation . Israel's immediate goals in the present conflict should
be confined to destruction of Hizbullah's missile array ands its
fortifications along the border, thus turning them into a monument to
Nasrallah's defeat. For this conflict to become a turning point,
however, Syria will have to be brought in to restrain Hizbullah, Iran's
influence in the region must to curtailed, and moderate Arab regimes
opposed to Iranian hegemony will have to clip the wings of
non-state actors that threaten regional stability.
July 24, 2006
With war raging along Israel's northern border and confrontation in
Gaza, Center Director Prof. Asher Susser analyzes the
historical and regional context of the current conflagration. His
conclusion: The erstwhile hegemonic Arab powers, Egypt, Syria, Iraq and
Saudi Arabia, have been eclipsed by the rising regional power and
influence of the non-Arab states, Israel, Iran and Turkey. The
former sit by helplessly, while the later set the regional agenda.
July 14, 2006
Between
Hamas and Hizballah - Israel’s Vital Interests
By Asher Susser
May 25, 2006
Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi's relations with American presidents,
which have had their ups and downs since the 1970s and 1980s, reached a
new peak with the May 15 announcement that Washington was renewing
relations with Tripoli. In this issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Senior
Fellow Dr. Yehudit Ronen traces Qaddafi's path from
pariah to partner.
May 14, 2006
More than four months after it was elected on December 15, 2005, the
Iraqi Council of Representatives (Parliament) was finally able to
nominate a new prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki. The crisis around
the prime minister was illustrative of a deep, structural problem
afflicting Iraqi polity and society since the formation of the modern
state. In "Coalition-Building in
Iraq: Mission Impossible?" Senior Fellow Prof. Ofra
Bengio stresses that al-Maliki is little more than a compromise
candidate, and that even if the current situation is not a full-blown
civil war, recent grisly events (such as the discovery in April of 2000
corpses in Baghdad), certainly indicate growing religious and ethnic
polarization, declining confidence in a
weak central government, and a loss of any sense of direction. Iraq, she
concludes, is in danger of becoming a failed state.
April 20, 2006
For many reasons, the combination of the Hamas victory in the
Palestinian Authority and a Shi'ite victory in Iraq is hardly a savory
combination for Jordanians. For example, the lack of stability
between Israel and the PA, and a fearful Sunni population in Iraq, raise
the specter of refugees fleeing to Jordan from both east and west. In
"Jordan:
Between Iraq and Palestine", published at
bitterlemons-international.org, Center Director Prof. Asher Susser
examines these and other challenges, and takes a look at Jordan's
limited options.
April 9, 2006
Even cynics in the Arab world expected the Arab Summit held in Khartoum in
late March to come up with some positive solutions, given the truly
urgent issues on the agenda (the election of Hamas and sectarian strife
in Iraq, to name just a few). But Arab leaders saw no
possibilities for concrete achievements on any of these issues; indeed
eight of them stayed away. In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes,
Senior Fellow Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman analyzed the reasons for
the Summit's impasse.
March 23, 2006
With Iraq teetering on the verge of civil war, Center Director Prof.
Asher Susser assesses that the fragmentation
of Iraq could have severe negative consequences for Israel.
February 28, 2006
Hamas' victory in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections has
set off a flurry of speculation about the possible implications for
regional politics, particularly in Jordan, with its large Palestinian
population and vocal Islamic movement. In this latest issue of Tel
Aviv Notes, Center Director Prof. Asher Susser examines the implications of the Hamas victory for
Jordan. Susser emphasizes the resilience of the Jordanian
monarchy, and while he does not rule out a possible confrontation
between Islamists and King Abdallah II, he stresses that Jordan has
already weathered countless storms. Though there can be no certainty
that the future will always resemble the past, it would be wise to bear
the lessons of the historical record in mind.
January 29, 2006
Fatah's failure in the Palestinian elections held in late January
was due to a lack of unity within the party, caused by a conflict
between the young and old guards, writes Visiting Fellow Ephraim Lavie
in this latest issue of Tel Aviv
Notes. Meanwhile, Hamas capitalized on the public's desire
for an end to the military confrontation, and made the decision to enter
the arena of institutional politics. It managed to integrate the younger
leadership and project image of responsibility, sobriety and pragmatism
that helped insure its victory. The loss of Fatah’s hegemonic
position or some dramatic development (e.g., Abu Mazen’s resignation)
could despite the Palestinian consensus against civil strife lead
to widespread violence between Fatah and Hamas.
January 23, 2006
The Iraqi elections of December 2005 are the crown jewel in
American-led efforts to redesign the state. The Shiite lists won a
plurality - 128 seats - but not the two-thirds majority needed to form a
government. The united Kurdish list took second place, with 53
seats, and the leading Sunni list came in third with 44 seats. Thus the
Sunnis remain highly suspicious of the new political order. In
this issue of Tel Aviv Notes
, Senior Fellow Dr. Ofra Bengio stresses that while the recent
elections are undoubtedly an important step in efforts to
institutionalize Iraqi democracy, the deeper processes of
liberalization, construction of civil society and national
reconciliation, so essential to sustainable democracy over the long
term, have so far failed to make much headway.
December 26, 2005
Hamas' sweeping gains in the fourth round of the Palestinian
Authority (PA) municipal elections, held on December 16, completed its
evolution as the dominant faction in local politics, with significant
ramifications for national Palestinian politics as well. In this
latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes,
Senior Fellow Dr. Meir Litvak stresses that they represent a
weakening of the mainstream Fath movement, which has not provided the
needed social agenda supplied by Hamas. In the Middle East as a whole,
this victory is further evidence that when Islamic movements compete in
free elections, they either win or substantially increase their
representation.
November 6, 2005
Following elections for an interim parliament, and then a referendum
on a constitution, Iraqis are scheduled to choose a regular
parliament in December. Although the lack of Sunni input into the
constitution raises serious questions about its viability as a
governing system for Iraq, Senior Fellow Dr. Ofra Bengio suggests in
this latest issue of Tel Aviv
Notes that the parliamentary elections carry a silver
lining: an opportunity for a US exit from Iraq.
October 27, 2005
On October 21, German investigator Detlev Mehlis submitted to the UN
Security Council his interim report on the assassination of former
Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. The report, which
accuses the Syrian authorities of being behind the murder, has caused
the ground to tremble in Damascus. According to the Mehlis Report,
senior Syrian figures, led by Bashar's brother, Maher, and his
brother-in-law, Asaf Shawkat, organized the killing of Hariri.
In this issue of Tel Aviv Notes,
Senior Research Fellow Prof.
Eyal Zisser analyzes the choices facing Bashar and US President George
W. Bush. His conclusion: While Washington would prefer that Bashar
change his behavior rather than depart the scene, there is little reason
to expect that he will adopt either of those options.
October 16, 2005
On September 29, Algeria held a referendum on the "Charter
for Peace and National Reconciliation" proposed by President
Abd al-Aziz Bouteflika. According to official results, the Charter
was approved by 97% of the voters, amounting to 82% of the eligible
electorate. But according to Dayan Center Senior Researcher Dr.
Gideon Gera, writing in this latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Algeria has
not yet addressed the root causes of the violent Islamist interlude of
the 1990s and unless it does, it is doubtful whether the "Charter
for Peace and National Reconciliation" will
generate real change.
Center researchers Meir Litvak and Esther Webman have
been conducting in-depth research on the Holocaust in Arab
discourse. This research is beginning to bear fruit, as in this
article, "Perceptions of the
Holocaust in Palestinian Public Discourse," in Israel
Studies.
August 18, 2005
The August 3 bloodless military coup in Mauritania that
removed president Maaouiya Ould Taya from power took place in one of the
world's most impoverished nations, situated on Africa's northwest coast
between Arab North Africa and black sub-Saharan Africa. In this Washington
Institute PolicyWatch, Center Associate Daniel Zissenwine
concludes that the new rulers will need to maneuver between competing
domestic political forces. These efforts may complicate Mauritania's
relations with foreign powers.
August 2, 2005
The death of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd and the assumption of kingship
by Abdallah represents more continuity that change on the Saudi scene,
given that Abdallah has run the affairs of state since Fahd's
incapacitation in 1995. In Tel
Aviv Notes , Senior
Fellow Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum gives the background to the succession and
analyzes potential pitfalls in the future. His conclusion: the
transition will be smooth, but given the advanced age of the current
King and the Crown Prince, another succession is not far away, and it
promises to be much more controversial.
July 4, 2005
Iran's June 24 presidential elections brought to power Mahmoud
Ahmadi-Nejad, a man loyal to the original principles of the Islamic
Revolution. In this latest edition Tel Aviv Notes , Center
Senior Fellow Prof. David Menashri stresses that Ahmadi-Nejad's election
represents a victory for the most conservative Iranians, many from the
lower echelons of society, who responded to his promises of equality and
an end to corruption. The new president's main challenge, however,
will be to make good on his promises.
Summer 2005
Center Senior Fellow Prof. Eyal Zisser has published "Bashar Al-Assad: In or Out of the
New World Order" in the Summer 2005 issue of The Washington
Quarterly. He notes that Syria's failures to fully cooperate against
terrorism and cope with either the results of the war in Iraq or recent
events in Lebanon are liable to force Bashar al-Assad's regime to make
painful domestic and foreign policy decisions that it has delayed for
years. Yet Bashar still seems to lack sufficient legitimacy and
charisma, as well as the experience needed to achieve genuine change.
May 22, 2005
Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon has presented its main local ally,
the Shi’ite organization Hizbullah, with a complex set of dilemmas as
it approaches elections at the end of May. In this latest issue of Tel Aviv
Notes, Senior Research Fellow Eyal Zisser stresses that while the
organization seeks to preserve its freedom of movement in southern
Lebanon, it does not seek an escalation of hostilities, lest pressure on
it to disarm increase; indeed, Palestinian organizations and not
Hizbullah were responsible for the latest round of violence. But
the question of Hizbullah's ultimate direction remains unresolved and
may only be clarified in the aftermath of the Lebanese elections.
May 17, 2005
Prof. Rex Brynen of McGill University in Montreal discusses
liberalization in the Middle East in "Democractic Dominoes."
His main question is why authoritarianism was so durable in the Arab
world. He gives five possible explanations: political culture;
economics; state versus civil society; regional conflicts and finally
western policies towards the region.
March 27, 2005
The recent
intra-Palestinian agreement between
Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and several smaller organizations to
extend the current "lull" (tahdi'a) in military
operations until the end of 2005 and to implement a series of reforms in
Palestinian political institutions is the subject of Dayan Center Fellow
Meir Litvak's latest Tel Aviv
Notes.
March 15, 2005
Saudi Arabia's municipal elections, which began on February 10, have
been trumpeted by many as "the first step on the way to
democracy." In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes,
Senior Fellow Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum examines the Saudi elections in both their
international and internal Saudi contexts. His conclusion: the
elections are another in a long history of successful maneuvers by a
family that has been in power for nearly 250 years, and will
continue to be for the foreseeable future.
February 24, 2005
The assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri on
February 14 has thrown Lebanon into turmoil. In "Lebanon after the Murder of Hariri,"
Senior Fellow Eyal Zisser calls into question the common wisdom that
Syria is behind the murder, arguing that it has only weakened Syria's
position.
February 13, 2005
In the latest issue
of Tel Aviv Notes, the Center's Bruce Maddy-Weitzman
analyzes the motivations behind each of the 4 participants at the Sharm
al-Shaykh summit, as well as the calculations of the US. He concludes
that the current hurting stalemate between Israel and the Palestinians
can be exploited for purposes of de-escalation and stabilization, which
may lead to a self-sustaining negotiating dynamic, and that a supportive
regional environment of the kind demonstrated at Sharm al-Shaykh can
contribute to the incremental progress that now seems possible.
January 2005
The Center's Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman discusses "The Election of Abu Mazen: Will It
Make a Difference?" He concludes that the overall
situation remains fragile, but that Arafat's passing introduces new,
important elements into the situation.
January 4, 2005
On December 22, 2004, Saudi Arabia expelled the Libyan ambassador
from Riyadh and withdrew its own diplomatic envoy from Tripoli. The
expulsion followed Saudi accusations of a Libyan plot to assassinate
Crown Prince Abdallah. In this latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes,
the Center's Dr.Yehudit Ronen sheds light on the byzantine machinations
behind the scenes of this Libyan-Saudi
diplomatic rupture.
December 2004
The Center's Dr. Paul Rivlin (with Shmuel Even) has published a
Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies Memorandum: Political Stability in Arab States:
Economic Causes and Consequences. The essays that
comprise the volume analyze some of the strengths and weakness of Arab
states from an economic perspective. Despite generally weak economic
performances, Arab regimes have overcome the threat of domestic
instability and the consequent threat to their own survival by
implementing partial and makeshift economic reforms.
December 19, 2004
On 14 December 2004, the Egyptian and Israeli Ministers of Industry
and the US Trade Representative signed an agreement to create eight
"Qualified Industrial Zones" (QIZs) in Egypt. The
agreement will permit goods made in Egypt but with a specified minimum
Israeli content to enter the US duty free. In this latest issue of Tel Aviv
Notes , the Center's Dr. Paul Rivlin explains that Egypt has much to
gain economically from the agreement, but only if it encourages local
companies to conclude deals with their Israeli counterparts.
November 30, 2004
In this two-part article, "Between
Iraq and the Palestinians -- Israel's Fateful Choices,"
originally published in the IPF Focus, Dayan Center Director Prof. Asher
Susser examines Israel's new strategic environment following the war in
Iraq and the death of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasir Arafat.
November 22, 2004
Over the course of November, Egypt has raised its foreign policy
profile by hosting a state funeral service for Palestinian leader Yasir
Arafat and an international conference on the future of Iraq. In
this latest issue of Tel Aviv
Notes, the Dayan Center's Bruce Maddy-Weitzman examines this
development. His conclusion: Challenged by a Middle East in
tremendous flux and US demands for "reform" and
transformation," the Mubarak regime would clearly like to be more
of a player in the region and less of a bystander. If it is able
to manage this role, valuable time will have been bought for a regime
that must somehow accelerate the pace of change while preserving
underlying stability.
November 16, 2004
"The death of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasir Arafat on 11
November may open up new possibilities for Palestinian political
development, but it may also exacerbate the ongoing anarchy and the
fragmentation of Palestinian society and politics." That is
the assessment of the Dayan Center's Meir Litvak in this latest issue of
Tel Aviv Notes . Such anarchy and
fragmentation, concludes Litvak, could give a boost to the Islamist
Hamas movement, thereby making any progress with Israel much more
difficult.
October 26, 2004
On October 24th Tunisians once again re-elected President Zayn
al-'Abidin Ben 'Ali by an absolute majority of 94.48%. In this issue of Tel Aviv Notes,
Daniel Zisenwine goes behind the headlines to analyze the
election. He concludes that although Ben 'Ali is largely recognized in
Tunisia for his economic achievements and some political reforms, he
shows few signs of moderating his authoritarian rule. His pro-Western
policies, however, will assure that criticism of his regime will remain
muted.
August 8, 2004,
On 3 August King Abdallah of Jordan gave an interview to the
Al-Arabiyya Satellite TV channel. The rather long and detailed exchange
was most revealing in respect to Abdallah's role as King, Jordan's
strategic predicament and the Kingdom's relations with the Palestinians.
Following is an analysis of the interview by the Center's Director Prof
Asher Susser:
ABDALLAH’S SCOLDING OF ARAFAT:
THE COMING OF AGE OF A HASHEMITE KING
August 1, 2004, After years of civil war Sudan is now the
scene of horrific human rights abuses against the non-Arab population of
the country. The Janjaweed Arab-Muslim militia, working hand-in-glove
with the Sudanese army and government implements an ethnic cleansing of
the area driving more than one million non-Arab Darfurians from their
homes. Senior Fellow, Dr Yehudit Ronen, wonders in The Tragedy in Darfur: Who is going to
stop it?, whether the conflicting interests of the international
community will allow for the practical implementation of measures to
halt the carnage.
July 22, 2004, Prof. Asher Susser analyses some of the root
cause of the strain in the Turkish-Israeli relationship and underscores
the critical importance of
Israel
's relations with
Turkey
, in "Regional
systemic change" published in The Bitterlemons
Middle East Roundtable (Edition 28, Volume 2, 22 July 2004).
June 2, 2004, Dayan Center Senior Fellow Dr. Paul Rivlin
analyzes the ramifications of high oil prices, in Oil at $40 a
Barrel: A Threat and a Signal.
May 3, 2004, Dr. Aaron David Miller, President, Seeds of
Peace, and formerly Adviser to the last six US Secretaries of State on
Arab-Israeli negotiations, analyzed issues in the current peace process
in the lecture entitled, The Pursuit of
Arab-Israeli Peace 1993-2000: Where Did the US Go Wrong?
May 2004, the Dayan Center Spring 2004 Bulletin is now
available. Click here to download the
full-color Bulletin in PDF format (2MB).
March 22, 2004, Prof. Henry Bienen, President of Northwestern
University, delivered the Kalman Lassner Memorial Lecture. His
topic: THE MEANING OF AMERICAN PRIMACY:
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST
April 20, 2004, Dayan Center Senior Fellow Dr. Meir Litvak
analyzes the implications of Israel's liquidation of Hamas's leader, in
"Hamas after Rantisi."
March 22, 2004, Dayan Center Senior Fellow Prof. Eyal Zisser
analyzes the latest signs of unease in Syria against the
background of the Ba'th Party's 41st anniversary of coming to power and
the first anniversary of America's war against Saddam Husayn's Iraq, in
"Bashar Under Pressure:
Potential Implications of the Qamishli Riots", Tel Aviv Notes,
No. 102, March 22, 2004.
January 25, 2003, Prof. Asher Susser provides the background
to Jordan's vociferous opposition to Israel's security fence in
his commentary, "Jordan
and the Israeli Security Fence", published in Tel Aviv
Notes, #96.
January 11, 2003
, Prof. Eyal Zisser answers the question, "What's Behind Bashar al-Assad's
Peace Offensive?" in Tel Aviv Notes, #95.
January 8, 2004, Prof. Asher Susser, writing in www.bitterlemons-international.org
"Middle East Roundtable," Edition 2 Volume 2,
comments on the collective Arab predicament, in light of the latest
findings of the Arab Human Development Report. Arab
disarray and Israel's impasse
December 24, 2003, Qadhafi’s Christmas Gift: What’s Behind Libya’s
Decision to Renounce WMD?
by Dayan Center Fellow Yehudit Ronen.
December 15, 2003, Dayan Center Director and Senior Fellow,
Prof. Asher Susser, published a critique of the refugee chapter of the
Geneva Accords in Ha'aretz in Hebrew on 11
December 2003. The Hebrew article appeared in translation in the English
version of Ha'aretz on 15 December. Here is the Ha'aretz
English version (with a few slight stylistic changes).
Prof. and Senior Fellow Eyal Zisser has published an analysis of
Syrian-American relations, "Syria and the United States: Bad Habits
Die Hard", in Middle East Quarterly, Vol. 10, No. 3
(2003)
http://www.meforum.org/article/555
Dayan Center Director and Senior Fellow, Prof. Asher Susser, has
published a tour
d'horizon of the dilemmas and predicaments facing Arab states and
societies following the recent war in Iraq and three years of the
Palestinian intifada, in Middle East Quarterly (Fall 2003, Vol. 10,
No. 4).
October 30, 2003, the Jerusalem Post's coverage
of the October 28, 2003 municipal elections in Israel's Arab sector
features the analysis of the Dayan Center's Senior Fellow Dr. Elie
Rekhess.
September 19, 2003, Senior Research Fellow Dr. Joshua
Teitelbaum on Saudi attempts to
prevent the emergence of a Shi'ite state in Iraq
September 7, 2003, Research Associate Daniel Zisenwine on new developments in Israeli-Moroccan relations
June 23, 2003, Senior Research Fellow Ofra Bengio on developments in Iraq several months into the
American occupation
June 2, 2003 Senior Research Fellow Ofra Bengio on the challenges for the US in Iraq
May 25, 2003 Senior Research Fellow Dr. Paul Rivlin on President Bush's proposal for a free trade
agreement with the Middle East
May 2003 Senior Research Fellow Dr. Ofra Bengio on "Pitfalls of Instant Democracy," a
chapter from the Washington Institute's monograph, U.S.
Policy in Post-Saddam Iraq: Lessons from the British Experience
April 15, 2003 Senior Research Fellow Prof.
David Menashri on Iran
and the War in Iraq
April 7, 2003 Senior Research Fellow Eyal Zisser on Bashar's
Game: What is Syria Up To?
March 30, 2003 Senior Research Fellows Ofra
Bengio and Bruce Maddy-Weitzman on Iraqi History vs. American Idealism
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