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April
1, 2008
Bashar al-Asad's
confirmation, in an interview to the Qatari daily al-Watan, that
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had given him a commitment to
return the entire Golan Heights to Syria has one meaning:
Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations are warming up. Center
Director, Prof Eyal Zisser, analyzes the dynamics which underpin
this new development in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES
April
1, 2008
The fifth anniversary of the
Iraq war prompted innumerable analyses, but ignored one of the
main reasons for the failure of the US's democratization project
in the Middle East - the unswerving opposition by the Arab
intellectual class. Center Fellow Uriya Shavit
examines the reasons for their opposition in this latest issue
of TEL AVIV NOTES.
March
9, 2008
The annual Arab summit
conference is scheduled to be held at the end of March, in
Damascus. However, Saudi and Egyptian distress with Syria's
behavior regarding Lebanon and its alliance with Iran may result
in their leaders' non-attendance, and even the summit's
cancellation. Center Senior Fellow Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman
places the current developments into historical context in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
February 17, 2008
The assassination of Hizballah's
long-time military mastermind Imad Mughniyeh, killed by a
massive car bomb in Damascus, is a serious blow to the
organization, as well as to Syrian President Bashar al-Asad.
Both are now faced with tough choices. Center Director Eyal
Zisser examines the implications in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
January 27, 2008
George
W. Bush's mid-January visit to Saudi Arabia failed to return the
US-Saudi relationship to the status it enjoyed before September
11, 2001.Center Senior Fellow Josh Teitelbaum
examines the two countries' differing approaches towards Iran,
as well as the underlying nature of the relationship, in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
January 22, 2008
The treatment by the Egyptian
press of the 30th anniversary of Egyptian President Anwar
Sadat’s visit to Jerusalem says much about Egypt’s self-view
of its past and present. Mira Tzoreff analyzes the
various reactions to the anniversary and concurrent aspects of
the cultivation of Egyptian collective memory in this latest
edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
December 27, 2007
Prof. Kenneth W. Stein
of Emory University analyzes what was, and what wasn't achieved
at the Annapolis peace
conference, against the background of past conferences and
diplomatic initiatives, in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV
NOTES.
December 16, 2007
The crisis between Turkey, the Turkish Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK)
and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq that flared up
in the fall of 2007 brought to the surface the dramatic changes
which have occurred within
the
Turkish-Kurdish-American triangle. Dayan Center Senior
Fellow Ofra Bengio analyzes the background to the crisis,
and suggests likely directions that the triangular relationship
will take in this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
November
14, 2007
Is Islam in Europe an integral
part of an evolving multicultural universe or a threat to the
integrity of European societies? The analysis by Center
Fellow Uriya Shavit, in this latest edition of TEL
AVIV NOTES, reveals a complex picture, both for Muslims
themselves and for European states and societies.
October 30, 2007
The Arab states are expected by the US to lend a hand to its
efforts to restart the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process at a meeting in Annapolis
scheduled for the end of November. For their part, America's
Arab allies have adopted a low profile for the time being, while
attempting to insure that the conference will not be a mere
photo-op. Center Senior Fellow Bruce Maddy-Weitzman
examines their calculations, and those of Syria as well, in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
October 16, 2007
Seven years
after the traumatic "October 2000 Events," Jewish-Arab relations
continue to be marked by worrisome developments. Elie
Rekhess, a Dayan Center Senior Fellow and Director of the
Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation, analyzes
the plusses and (mostly) minuses in this issue of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
September 25, 2007
The geopolitical changes unleashed by America’s overthrow of
Saddam Husayn’s regime in Iraq have resulted in a significant
measure of mistrust creeping into the historically close
relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US. Nonetheless, the
two countries underlying common interests in blocking the rise
of Iran as a regional hegemon and insuring the flow of oil
remain in place. Center Senior Fellow
Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum
examines
the most recent
oscillations in Saudi-American relations in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
September 19, 2007
Senior Fellow Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum (in Hebrew) on
Saudi Arabia’s proposed wall along the Iraqi border.
September 19, 2007
Morocco's September 7th
parliamentary elections provided an important window into
the state of Morocco’s much-heralded policies of liberalization
and democratization, as well as the place of Islamist parties in
the political process. Dayan Center Fellow Daniel Zissenwine
analyzes the outcome in this latest version of
TEL AVIV
NOTES.
August 30, 2007
Tuesday evening, August 14, 2007 marked the latest turn in
Iraq's ongoing nightmare, when a chain of blasts hit two
Yezidi Kurdish
villages. In this latest edition of
TEL AVIV
NOTES,
Idan Barir examines the implications.
August 22, 2007
Can economic
sanctions be effective in containing Iran's military nuclear
project? Are there lessons to be drawn from previous Middle
East experiences with sanctions? Dayan Center Senior Fellow
Amos Nadan and Truman
Institute Research Group Director
Eldad Pardo suggest
the answers in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
August 5, 2007
The elections of July 22, precipitated by a
political-constitutional crisis pitting the ruling AKP Islamist
party against the military and state elites, were one of the
most important in Turkey’s political history. The outcome
was a decisive vote of confidence for the AKP, as it seeks a new
synthesis between Islam, a market economy and liberal
democracy. Prof. Soli Ozel
of Bilgi University in Istanbul analyzes the results in this
latest edition of TEL AVIV
NOTES.
July 22, 2007
The one-year anniversary of last year's Second Lebanon War calls
for scrutiny of the shifts
in the Middle East regional architecture which underpinned
the war, and an examination of the processes which subsequently
unfolded. A confident and ambitious Shi'ite Iran is intent on
filling the vacuum left by the frailty of secularism and the
infirmity of the Arab state. This weakness has also set the
stage for the reassertion with a vengeance of religious and
other primordial identities of family, tribe and sect. Center
Director Asher Susser examines these processes in the
latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
June 19, 2007
The outcome of the
civil war in the Gaza Strip created a fissure of historical
proportions in the Palestinian national movement and a
separation of governmental authority between Gaza and the West
Bank. Center Fellow Ephraim Lavie analyzes the dynamics
of the recent intra-Palestinian conflict and its implications in
this latest version of TEL AVIV NOTES.
June 7, 2007
The attempt by Turkey's ruling Islamist-oriented Justice
and Development Party (AKP) to promote one of its leading
figures to the office of President has touched off
a major political crisis in Turkey,
resulting in the scheduling of parliamentary elections on July
22. Tel Aviv University Doctoral Candidate Yossi Eli
analyzes the dynamics of the crisis in this latest edition of
TEL AVIV NOTES.
May 26, 2007
Algeria's recent
parliamentary elections provides a window into the state of
the country's political system and the prospects for democracy.
Center Fellow Dr. Daniel Zisenwine examines the
background to the elections and their outcome in this latest
edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
May 10, 2007
The
exigencies of governing, the threat of civil war and the renewal
of the Arab peace initiative has compelled the Hamas leadership
to adopt more pragmatic polices. At the same time, it has
striven to harden the Palestinian consensual position on core
ideological issues, and return the center of gravity in
Palestinian affairs to the Diaspora, away from the specific
interests of the West Bank and Gaza communities. Dayan Center
Director Prof. Asher Susser examines these dynamics in
this latest edition of TEL AVIV NOTES.
April 29, 2007
The decision by Hamas to form a Palestinian National Unity
Government with the rival Fatah movement was not an easy
one, and constituted a significant alteration of the
Damascus-based external leadership's position. Hamas is now
compelled to maneuver to maneuver between (a) the obligation of
governing, which require it to tender pragmatic policies in both
foreign and domestic affairs, and (b) its determination to
maintain its ideological principles. Dayan Center Fellow
Ephraim Lavie examines this dilemma, and Hamas' resulting
behavior, in the latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
March 25, 2007
A recent burst of Saudi Arabian diplomatic activity has
raised hopes for the establishment of a Western-Sunni
Arab-Israeli coalition which would counter Iran's bid for
regional hegemony and to reinvigorate the long-stalled
Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Dayan Center Senior Fellow
Prof. Joseph Kostiner examines
Saudi strategy and tactics
through the prism of a time-honored Saudi method - mediation
- in the latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
March 11, 2007
Recent
Islamist terrorist activities in Algeria and Tunisia have
renewed the focus of international attention on North Africa. In
this recent edition of Tel
Aviv Notes, post-doctoral fellow Dr. Daniel Zissenwine assesses the implications.
February 28, 2007
The ongoing standoff in Lebanon
is part of a larger struggle for regional hegemony between Iran,
on the one hand, and a number of Arab states and Israel, on the
other. Prof. Asher Susser, Head of the Dayan Center, examines
the issues at stake for Lebanon and for the region as a whole in
this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
February 14, 2007
Egypt's recent
crackdown on the opposition Muslim Brotherhood movement and
liberal political activists alike generated much attention
both domestically and internationally. Dr. Mira Tzoreff of the
Middle East History Department analyzes these developments and
their implications for Egyptian political and social life in
this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
February 8, 2007
If the current price of oil,
$54 per barrel, remains the same throughout 2007, it will
constitute an 11% drop from the average price in 2006, with a
corresponding drop in revenues for oil producing states. Saudi
Arabia is well-positioned to cope with this change. Iran,
however, is not. Dayan Center Senior Fellow Dr. Paul Rivlin
analyzes
the
implications of lower oil prices for both countries in this
latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes.
December 26,
2006
Prof. Nathan
Brown
The Achievements of the Palestinian
National Authority? A Historical
Appraisal.
January 5, 2007
Dayan Center
Senior Fellow Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman examines a
new book on Hamas.
January 14,
2007
US Secretary
of State Rice's latest visit to the Middle East has been
accompanied by renewed suggestions to fashion an Arab Quartet,
a coalition of moderate pro-Western Arab states which would
complement new American-led diplomatic initiatives in the
region. Dayan Center Senior Fellow
Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman
examines the prospective efficacy of the proposed Quartet in
this latest edition of Tel
Aviv Notes.
January 1, 2007
Iran's growing regional power and the accompanying strength of Shiite Muslim communities in Iraq, Lebanon and the Gulf are viewed with extreme concern in Saudi Arabia. After a decade of cordial relations with Iran, 2006 was a year in which the pendulum of Saudi-Iranian relations swung back towards confrontation. Dayan Center Senior Fellow Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum analyzes the regional and domestic aspects of Saudi concerns in this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes. December 19, 2006
The Future Vision of the Palestinian Arabs in Israel was issued recently by the National Committee of the Heads of Arab Local Councils and endorsed by the Supreme Follow-up Committee of the Arabs in Israel. The document deals with the question of Israel's nature as a Jewish and democratic
state, and with the demands of the Arab population in Israel for national, political, social and cultural rights. Dr. Elie Rekhess, Dayan Center Senior Fellow and head of the Konrad Adenauer Center for Jewish-Arab-Cooperation analyzes the document and its consequences in this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes. December 17, 2006
Palestinian Authority President Abu Mazen's decision to call for early presidential and legislative elections has raised Hamas-Fatah tensions to the boiling point. It came against the background of unbridgeable differences between Hamas and Abu Mazen over the terms of establishing a national unity government, as well as opposing approaches within the Hamas leadership regarding a ceasefire and prisoner exchange with Israel, pitting Damascus-based Khalid Mash`al against PA Prime Minister and Gaza resident Isma`il Haniyeh. Dayan Center Fellow Ephraim Lavie analyzes these complex dynamics in the latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes. December 3, 2006
With Hizballah in the streets, the possibility of a Syrian-backed coup against the Siniora government in Lebanon grows more real every day. In this article from Israel's leading daily Yediot Aharonot, Senior Research Fellow
Prof. Eyal Zisser discussed the implications for Israel. November 20, 2006
The assassination of Lebanon's Pierre Jumayyil is the latest in a series of events which have plunged Lebanon into its most severe political crisis since the end of the 14-year civil war in October 1989. Hizballah Secretary-General Shaykh Hasan Nasrallah has made a bold bid to fundamentally alter the existing political order in Lebanon, and achieve an effective veto power over major political decisions. Opposing him is a coalition of pro-Western, anti-Syrian forces known as the "Cedar Revolution, " headed by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Dayan Center Senior Fellow
Prof. Eyal Zisser analyzes the factors underpinning the crisis and its implications for Israel. November 11, 2006
Saddam's Husayn's trial has now concluded, with a conviction and sentencing to death by hanging. Its long-term implications for Iraq are hardly what the US had hoped for. Like other previous US actions, this too serves to exacerbate internal divisions and further destabilize a society which is already caught in a cycle of escalating violence and headed towards all-out civil war. In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Dayan Center Senior Fellow Ofra Bengio analyzes Iraq's grim prospects, following the collapse of totalitarian rule.
September 13, 2006
With the Israeli government just having appointed a commission to
examine the war in Lebanon, the Israeli media is typically deep into
self-examination, remaining largely oblivious to the regional results of
the recent conflict. In this opinion piece from The
Jerusalem Post, Center Director Prof. Asher Susser
demonstrates that both
in Lebanon and in other Arab countries, the conflict is not considered a
conclusive victory for Hizballah. Many Lebanese are discussing
the disaster brought on the country by Hizballah, and the Lebanese
government has been emboldened to take advantage of the new political
realities to finally exert its sovereignty over the entire country, with
the help of a robust international force. An Egyptian commentator,
Ali al-Ibrahim, noted recently that the Arabs had learned to
differentiate between victories on television and real victories in the
field. "How long will it take the Israelis to do likewise?"
asks Susser.
August 21, 2006
Special issue on "The Arabs in
Israel and the War in the North" (The Konrad Adenauer Program
for Jewish-Arab Cooperation)
August 6, 2006
Strategically, the Israel-Hizbullah war which began on July 12 was a
breakdown of deterrence, writes Center Associate Fellow Ephraim Lavie.
In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes, he stresses that when Hizbullah leader Hasan Nasrallah
was not deterred by Israel's military power, Israel chose not to be
deterred by Hizbullah's missiles, and instead launched a large-scale
operation . Israel's immediate goals in the present conflict should
be confined to destruction of Hizbullah's missile array ands its
fortifications along the border, thus turning them into a monument to
Nasrallah's defeat. For this conflict to become a turning point,
however, Syria will have to be brought in to restrain Hizbullah, Iran's
influence in the region must to curtailed, and moderate Arab regimes
opposed to Iranian hegemony will have to clip the wings of
non-state actors that threaten regional stability.
July 24, 2006
With war raging along Israel's northern border and confrontation in
Gaza, Center Director Prof. Asher Susser analyzes the
historical and regional context of the current conflagration. His
conclusion: The erstwhile hegemonic Arab powers, Egypt, Syria, Iraq and
Saudi Arabia, have been eclipsed by the rising regional power and
influence of the non-Arab states, Israel, Iran and Turkey. The
former sit by helplessly, while the later set the regional agenda.
July 14, 2006
Between
Hamas and Hizballah - Israel’s Vital Interests
By Asher Susser
May 25, 2006
Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi's relations with American presidents,
which have had their ups and downs since the 1970s and 1980s, reached a
new peak with the May 15 announcement that Washington was renewing
relations with Tripoli. In this issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Senior
Fellow Dr. Yehudit Ronen traces Qaddafi's path from
pariah to partner.
May 14, 2006
More than four months after it was elected on December 15, 2005, the
Iraqi Council of Representatives (Parliament) was finally able to
nominate a new prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki. The crisis around
the prime minister was illustrative of a deep, structural problem
afflicting Iraqi polity and society since the formation of the modern
state. In "Coalition-Building in
Iraq: Mission Impossible?" Senior Fellow Prof. Ofra
Bengio stresses that al-Maliki is little more than a compromise
candidate, and that even if the current situation is not a full-blown
civil war, recent grisly events (such as the discovery in April of 2000
corpses in Baghdad), certainly indicate growing religious and ethnic
polarization, declining confidence in a
weak central government, and a loss of any sense of direction. Iraq, she
concludes, is in danger of becoming a failed state.
April 20, 2006
For many reasons, the combination of the Hamas victory in the
Palestinian Authority and a Shi'ite victory in Iraq is hardly a savory
combination for Jordanians. For example, the lack of stability
between Israel and the PA, and a fearful Sunni population in Iraq, raise
the specter of refugees fleeing to Jordan from both east and west. In
"Jordan:
Between Iraq and Palestine", published at
bitterlemons-international.org, Center Director Prof. Asher Susser
examines these and other challenges, and takes a look at Jordan's
limited options.
April 9, 2006
Even cynics in the Arab world expected the Arab Summit held in Khartoum in
late March to come up with some positive solutions, given the truly
urgent issues on the agenda (the election of Hamas and sectarian strife
in Iraq, to name just a few). But Arab leaders saw no
possibilities for concrete achievements on any of these issues; indeed
eight of them stayed away. In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes,
Senior Fellow Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman analyzed the reasons for
the Summit's impasse.
March 23, 2006
With Iraq teetering on the verge of civil war, Center Director Prof.
Asher Susser assesses that the fragmentation
of Iraq could have severe negative consequences for Israel.
February 28, 2006
Hamas' victory in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections has
set off a flurry of speculation about the possible implications for
regional politics, particularly in Jordan, with its large Palestinian
population and vocal Islamic movement. In this latest issue of Tel
Aviv Notes, Center Director Prof. Asher Susser examines the implications of the Hamas victory for
Jordan. Susser emphasizes the resilience of the Jordanian
monarchy, and while he does not rule out a possible confrontation
between Islamists and King Abdallah II, he stresses that Jordan has
already weathered countless storms. Though there can be no certainty
that the future will always resemble the past, it would be wise to bear
the lessons of the historical record in mind.
January 29, 2006
Fatah's failure in the Palestinian elections held in late January
was due to a lack of unity within the party, caused by a conflict
between the young and old guards, writes Visiting Fellow Ephraim Lavie
in this latest issue of Tel Aviv
Notes. Meanwhile, Hamas capitalized on the public's desire
for an end to the military confrontation, and made the decision to enter
the arena of institutional politics. It managed to integrate the younger
leadership and project image of responsibility, sobriety and pragmatism
that helped insure its victory. The loss of Fatah’s hegemonic
position or some dramatic development (e.g., Abu Mazen’s resignation)
could despite the Palestinian consensus against civil strife lead
to widespread violence between Fatah and Hamas.
January 23, 2006
The Iraqi elections of December 2005 are the crown jewel in
American-led efforts to redesign the state. The Shiite lists won a
plurality - 128 seats - but not the two-thirds majority needed to form a
government. The united Kurdish list took second place, with 53
seats, and the leading Sunni list came in third with 44 seats. Thus the
Sunnis remain highly suspicious of the new political order. In
this issue of Tel Aviv Notes
, Senior Fellow Dr. Ofra Bengio stresses that while the recent
elections are undoubtedly an important step in efforts to
institutionalize Iraqi democracy, the deeper processes of
liberalization, construction of civil society and national
reconciliation, so essential to sustainable democracy over the long
term, have so far failed to make much headway.
December 26, 2005
Hamas' sweeping gains in the fourth round of the Palestinian
Authority (PA) municipal elections, held on December 16, completed its
evolution as the dominant faction in local politics, with significant
ramifications for national Palestinian politics as well. In this
latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes,
Senior Fellow Dr. Meir Litvak stresses that they represent a
weakening of the mainstream Fath movement, which has not provided the
needed social agenda supplied by Hamas. In the Middle East as a whole,
this victory is further evidence that when Islamic movements compete in
free elections, they either win or substantially increase their
representation.
November 6, 2005
Following elections for an interim parliament, and then a referendum
on a constitution, Iraqis are scheduled to choose a regular
parliament in December. Although the lack of Sunni input into the
constitution raises serious questions about its viability as a
governing system for Iraq, Senior Fellow Dr. Ofra Bengio suggests in
this latest issue of Tel Aviv
Notes that the parliamentary elections carry a silver
lining: an opportunity for a US exit from Iraq.
October 27, 2005
On October 21, German investigator Detlev Mehlis submitted to the UN
Security Council his interim report on the assassination of former
Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. The report, which
accuses the Syrian authorities of being behind the murder, has caused
the ground to tremble in Damascus. According to the Mehlis Report,
senior Syrian figures, led by Bashar's brother, Maher, and his
brother-in-law, Asaf Shawkat, organized the killing of Hariri.
In this issue of Tel Aviv Notes,
Senior Research Fellow Prof.
Eyal Zisser analyzes the choices facing Bashar and US President George
W. Bush. His conclusion: While Washington would prefer that Bashar
change his behavior rather than depart the scene, there is little reason
to expect that he will adopt either of those options.
October 16, 2005
On September 29, Algeria held a referendum on the "Charter
for Peace and National Reconciliation" proposed by President
Abd al-Aziz Bouteflika. According to official results, the Charter
was approved by 97% of the voters, amounting to 82% of the eligible
electorate. But according to Dayan Center Senior Researcher Dr.
Gideon Gera, writing in this latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Algeria has
not yet addressed the root causes of the violent Islamist interlude of
the 1990s and unless it does, it is doubtful whether the "Charter
for Peace and National Reconciliation" will
generate real change.
Center researchers Meir Litvak and Esther Webman have
been conducting in-depth research on the Holocaust in Arab
discourse. This research is beginning to bear fruit, as in this
article, "Perceptions of the
Holocaust in Palestinian Public Discourse," in Israel
Studies.
August 18, 2005
The August 3 bloodless military coup in Mauritania that
removed president Maaouiya Ould Taya from power took place in one of the
world's most impoverished nations, situated on Africa's northwest coast
between Arab North Africa and black sub-Saharan Africa. In this Washington
Institute PolicyWatch, Center Associate Daniel Zissenwine
concludes that the new rulers will need to maneuver between competing
domestic political forces. These efforts may complicate Mauritania's
relations with foreign powers.
August 2, 2005
The death of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd and the assumption of kingship
by Abdallah represents more continuity that change on the Saudi scene,
given that Abdallah has run the affairs of state since Fahd's
incapacitation in 1995. In Tel
Aviv Notes , Senior
Fellow Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum gives the background to the succession and
analyzes potential pitfalls in the future. His conclusion: the
transition will be smooth, but given the advanced age of the current
King and the Crown Prince, another succession is not far away, and it
promises to be much more controversial.
July 4, 2005
Iran's June 24 presidential elections brought to power Mahmoud
Ahmadi-Nejad, a man loyal to the original principles of the Islamic
Revolution. In this latest edition Tel Aviv Notes , Center
Senior Fellow Prof. David Menashri stresses that Ahmadi-Nejad's election
represents a victory for the most conservative Iranians, many from the
lower echelons of society, who responded to his promises of equality and
an end to corruption. The new president's main challenge, however,
will be to make good on his promises.
Summer 2005
Center Senior Fellow Prof. Eyal Zisser has published "Bashar Al-Assad: In or Out of the
New World Order" in the Summer 2005 issue of The Washington
Quarterly. He notes that Syria's failures to fully cooperate against
terrorism and cope with either the results of the war in Iraq or recent
events in Lebanon are liable to force Bashar al-Assad's regime to make
painful domestic and foreign policy decisions that it has delayed for
years. Yet Bashar still seems to lack sufficient legitimacy and
charisma, as well as the experience needed to achieve genuine change.
May 22, 2005
Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon has presented its main local ally,
the Shi’ite organization Hizbullah, with a complex set of dilemmas as
it approaches elections at the end of May. In this latest issue of Tel Aviv
Notes, Senior Research Fellow Eyal Zisser stresses that while the
organization seeks to preserve its freedom of movement in southern
Lebanon, it does not seek an escalation of hostilities, lest pressure on
it to disarm increase; indeed, Palestinian organizations and not
Hizbullah were responsible for the latest round of violence. But
the question of Hizbullah's ultimate direction remains unresolved and
may only be clarified in the aftermath of the Lebanese elections.
May 17, 2005
Prof. Rex Brynen of McGill University in Montreal discusses
liberalization in the Middle East in "Democractic Dominoes."
His main question is why authoritarianism was so durable in the Arab
world. He gives five possible explanations: political culture;
economics; state versus civil society; regional conflicts and finally
western policies towards the region.
March 27, 2005
The recent
intra-Palestinian agreement between
Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and several smaller organizations to
extend the current "lull" (tahdi'a) in military
operations until the end of 2005 and to implement a series of reforms in
Palestinian political institutions is the subject of Dayan Center Fellow
Meir Litvak's latest Tel Aviv
Notes.
March 15, 2005
Saudi Arabia's municipal elections, which began on February 10, have
been trumpeted by many as "the first step on the way to
democracy." In this latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes,
Senior Fellow Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum examines the Saudi elections in both their
international and internal Saudi contexts. His conclusion: the
elections are another in a long history of successful maneuvers by a
family that has been in power for nearly 250 years, and will
continue to be for the foreseeable future.
February 24, 2005
The assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri on
February 14 has thrown Lebanon into turmoil. In "Lebanon after the Murder of Hariri,"
Senior Fellow Eyal Zisser calls into question the common wisdom that
Syria is behind the murder, arguing that it has only weakened Syria's
position.
February 13, 2005
In the latest issue
of Tel Aviv Notes, the Center's Bruce Maddy-Weitzman
analyzes the motivations behind each of the 4 participants at the Sharm
al-Shaykh summit, as well as the calculations of the US. He concludes
that the current hurting stalemate between Israel and the Palestinians
can be exploited for purposes of de-escalation and stabilization, which
may lead to a self-sustaining negotiating dynamic, and that a supportive
regional environment of the kind demonstrated at Sharm al-Shaykh can
contribute to the incremental progress that now seems possible.
January 2005
The Center's Dr. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman discusses "The Election of Abu Mazen: Will It
Make a Difference?" He concludes that the overall
situation remains fragile, but that Arafat's passing introduces new,
important elements into the situation.
January 4, 2005
On December 22, 2004, Saudi Arabia expelled the Libyan ambassador
from Riyadh and withdrew its own diplomatic envoy from Tripoli. The
expulsion followed Saudi accusations of a Libyan plot to assassinate
Crown Prince Abdallah. In this latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes,
the Center's Dr.Yehudit Ronen sheds light on the byzantine machinations
behind the scenes of this Libyan-Saudi
diplomatic rupture.
December 2004
The Center's Dr. Paul Rivlin (with Shmuel Even) has published a
Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies Memorandum: Political Stability in Arab States:
Economic Causes and Consequences. The essays that
comprise the volume analyze some of the strengths and weakness of Arab
states from an economic perspective. Despite generally weak economic
performances, Arab regimes have overcome the threat of domestic
instability and the consequent threat to their own survival by
implementing partial and makeshift economic reforms.
December 19, 2004
On 14 December 2004, the Egyptian and Israeli Ministers of Industry
and the US Trade Representative signed an agreement to create eight
"Qualified Industrial Zones" (QIZs) in Egypt. The
agreement will permit goods made in Egypt but with a specified minimum
Israeli content to enter the US duty free. In this latest issue of Tel Aviv
Notes , the Center's Dr. Paul Rivlin explains that Egypt has much to
gain economically from the agreement, but only if it encourages local
companies to conclude deals with their Israeli counterparts.
November 30, 2004
In this two-part article, "Between
Iraq and the Palestinians -- Israel's Fateful Choices,"
originally published in the IPF Focus, Dayan Center Director Prof. Asher
Susser examines Israel's new strategic environment following the war in
Iraq and the death of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasir Arafat.
November 22, 2004
Over the course of November, Egypt has raised its foreign policy
profile by hosting a state funeral service for Palestinian leader Yasir
Arafat and an international conference on the future of Iraq. In
this latest issue of Tel Aviv
Notes, the Dayan Center's Bruce Maddy-Weitzman examines this
development. His conclusion: Challenged by a Middle East in
tremendous flux and US demands for "reform" and
transformation," the Mubarak regime would clearly like to be more
of a player in the region and less of a bystander. If it is able
to manage this role, valuable time will have been bought for a regime
that must somehow accelerate the pace of change while preserving
underlying stability.
November 16, 2004
"The death of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasir Arafat on 11
November may open up new possibilities for Palestinian political
development, but it may also exacerbate the ongoing anarchy and the
fragmentation of Palestinian society and politics." That is
the assessment of the Dayan Center's Meir Litvak in this latest issue of
Tel Aviv Notes . Such anarchy and
fragmentation, concludes Litvak, could give a boost to the Islamist
Hamas movement, thereby making any progress with Israel much more
difficult.
October 26, 2004
On October 24th Tunisians once again re-elected President Zayn
al-'Abidin Ben 'Ali by an absolute majority of 94.48%. In this issue of Tel Aviv Notes,
Daniel Zisenwine goes behind the headlines to analyze the
election. He concludes that although Ben 'Ali is largely recognized in
Tunisia for his economic achievements and some political reforms, he
shows few signs of moderating his authoritarian rule. His pro-Western
policies, however, will assure that criticism of his regime will remain
muted.
August 8, 2004,
On 3 August King Abdallah of Jordan gave an interview to the
Al-Arabiyya Satellite TV channel. The rather long and detailed exchange
was most revealing in respect to Abdallah's role as King, Jordan's
strategic predicament and the Kingdom's relations with the Palestinians.
Following is an analysis of the interview by the Center's Director Prof
Asher Susser:
ABDALLAH’S SCOLDING OF ARAFAT:
THE COMING OF AGE OF A HASHEMITE KING
August 1, 2004, After years of civil war Sudan is now the
scene of horrific human rights abuses against the non-Arab population of
the country. The Janjaweed Arab-Muslim militia, working hand-in-glove
with the Sudanese army and government implements an ethnic cleansing of
the area driving more than one million non-Arab Darfurians from their
homes. Senior Fellow, Dr Yehudit Ronen, wonders in The Tragedy in Darfur: Who is going to
stop it?, whether the conflicting interests of the international
community will allow for the practical implementation of measures to
halt the carnage.
July 22, 2004, Prof. Asher Susser analyses some of the root
cause of the strain in the Turkish-Israeli relationship and underscores
the critical importance of
Israel
's relations with
Turkey
, in "Regional
systemic change" published in The Bitterlemons
Middle East Roundtable (Edition 28, Volume 2, 22 July 2004).
June 2, 2004, Dayan Center Senior Fellow Dr. Paul Rivlin
analyzes the ramifications of high oil prices, in Oil at $40 a
Barrel: A Threat and a Signal.
May 3, 2004, Dr. Aaron David Miller, President, Seeds of
Peace, and formerly Adviser to the last six US Secretaries of State on
Arab-Israeli negotiations, analyzed issues in the current peace process
in the lecture entitled, The Pursuit of
Arab-Israeli Peace 1993-2000: Where Did the US Go Wrong?
May 2004, the Dayan Center Spring 2004 Bulletin is now
available. Click here to download the
full-color Bulletin in PDF format (2MB).
March 22, 2004, Prof. Henry Bienen, President of Northwestern
University, delivered the Kalman Lassner Memorial Lecture. His
topic: THE MEANING OF AMERICAN PRIMACY:
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST
April 20, 2004, Dayan Center Senior Fellow Dr. Meir Litvak
analyzes the implications of Israel's liquidation of Hamas's leader, in
"Hamas after Rantisi."
March 22, 2004, Dayan Center Senior Fellow Prof. Eyal Zisser
analyzes the latest signs of unease in Syria against the
background of the Ba'th Party's 41st anniversary of coming to power and
the first anniversary of America's war against Saddam Husayn's Iraq, in
"Bashar Under Pressure:
Potential Implications of the Qamishli Riots", Tel Aviv Notes,
No. 102, March 22, 2004.
January 25, 2003, Prof. Asher Susser provides the background
to Jordan's vociferous opposition to Israel's security fence in
his commentary, "Jordan
and the Israeli Security Fence", published in Tel Aviv
Notes, #96.
January 11, 2003
, Prof. Eyal Zisser answers the question, "What's Behind Bashar al-Assad's
Peace Offensive?" in Tel Aviv Notes, #95.
January 8, 2004, Prof. Asher Susser, writing in www.bitterlemons-international.org
"Middle East Roundtable," Edition 2 Volume 2,
comments on the collective Arab predicament, in light of the latest
findings of the Arab Human Development Report. Arab
disarray and Israel's impasse
December 24, 2003, Qadhafi’s Christmas Gift: What’s Behind Libya’s
Decision to Renounce WMD?
by Dayan Center Fellow Yehudit Ronen.
December 15, 2003, Dayan Center Director and Senior Fellow,
Prof. Asher Susser, published a critique of the refugee chapter of the
Geneva Accords in Ha'aretz in Hebrew on 11
December 2003. The Hebrew article appeared in translation in the English
version of Ha'aretz on 15 December. Here is the Ha'aretz
English version (with a few slight stylistic changes).
Prof. and Senior Fellow Eyal Zisser has published an analysis of
Syrian-American relations, "Syria and the United States: Bad Habits
Die Hard", in Middle East Quarterly, Vol. 10, No. 3
(2003)
http://www.meforum.org/article/555
Dayan Center Director and Senior Fellow, Prof. Asher Susser, has
published a tour
d'horizon of the dilemmas and predicaments facing Arab states and
societies following the recent war in Iraq and three years of the
Palestinian intifada, in Middle East Quarterly (Fall 2003, Vol. 10,
No. 4).
October 30, 2003, the Jerusalem Post's coverage
of the October 28, 2003 municipal elections in Israel's Arab sector
features the analysis of the Dayan Center's Senior Fellow Dr. Elie
Rekhess.
September 19, 2003, Senior Research Fellow Dr. Joshua
Teitelbaum on Saudi attempts to
prevent the emergence of a Shi'ite state in Iraq
September 7, 2003, Research Associate Daniel Zisenwine on new developments in Israeli-Moroccan relations
June 23, 2003, Senior Research Fellow Ofra Bengio on developments in Iraq several months into the
American occupation
June 2, 2003 Senior Research Fellow Ofra Bengio on the challenges for the US in Iraq
May 25, 2003 Senior Research Fellow Dr. Paul Rivlin on President Bush's proposal for a free trade
agreement with the Middle East
May 2003 Senior Research Fellow Dr. Ofra Bengio on "Pitfalls of Instant Democracy," a
chapter from the Washington Institute's monograph, U.S.
Policy in Post-Saddam Iraq: Lessons from the British Experience
April 15, 2003 Senior Research Fellow Prof.
David Menashri on Iran
and the War in Iraq
April 7, 2003 Senior Research Fellow Eyal Zisser on Bashar's
Game: What is Syria Up To?
March 30, 2003 Senior Research Fellows Ofra
Bengio and Bruce Maddy-Weitzman on Iraqi History vs. American Idealism
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